Irish General Election 2016 Analysis

Anyone who makes a living forecasting political results is bound to be feeling uneasy at the moment. From the Conservative’s triumph last May, to the rise of Donald Trump, the Irish General Election of 2016 has brought with it a new plot twist; the Return of Fianna Fáil. Despite being largely blamed/ responsible for the fiscal crisis which led to the loss of Ireland’s fiscal sovereignty in 2010, the party has bounced back with a vengeance, and by some estimates, may be the largest in the coming Dáil. Their erstwhile rivals meanwhile, the blue-shirted Fine Gael, have suffered a severe setback. While they had been stagnant in the polls for the last number of weeks, many political commentators quietly predicted a sharp swing to FG come polling day, with some even suggesting a possible overall majority. Instead, they have been trounced by an angry electorate, and will struggle to remain in power. Their coalition partners Labour have also been decimated, but to be fair, everyone expected this.

In order to explain these results, we will examine the last 3 general elections in Ireland. The reason for this is that, thanks to some fortunate (or unfortunate, depending upon your political persuasion) placement of election years we can construct a general model of the Irish Electorate. In addition, the financial crisis that occurred immediately prior, makes the 2011 election somewhat of an outlier. This also makes the 2007 election particularly useful- right during the peak of the property bubble, and gives us a rough indication of each party’s support. The results, are presented below

	2007	2011	2016**
Fianna Fáil	41.5%	17.5%	24.3%
Fine Gael	27.32%	36.1%	25.5%
Labour	10.13%	19.5%	6.6%
Sinn Fein	6.94%	9.9%	13.8%
Green Party	4.69%	1.8%	2.7%
Independents	5.15%	12.1%	17.2%
Other Right-Wing*	2.92%	.2%	2.2%
Other Left-Wing*	1.2%	2.6%	6.9%

*(Other right-wing include Renua, Christian Solidarity, Progressive Democrats, while other left-wing include the AAA-PBP, Socialist Party, Social Democrats etc.)

**(As results are still coming in, we use the latest estimates as of Sunday 28^th of February 2016)

Fianna Fáil: The party have recovered significantly since 2011, although they are still a long way shy of their heyday, when they would regularly top over 40%. That this, their second-worst ever result in an Irish election, is being framed as a triumph for the ages, is a testament to the damage the party took in the last general election.  However, FF supporters should be wary of talking of Lazarus-like recoveries. Should they go into government, they will almost certainly lose support in the next GE, and are unlikely to ever recover their previous heights. A further spell on the side-lines may be the best option but its members will be itching to return to power. Leader Mícheal Martin will be pleased with the result, which should end threats to his leadership. Whether the party would be willing to go into coalition with Fine Gael remains unlikely, although as ever, nothing should be ruled out in politics. Still, a further election this year is now the most likely scenario, and this will be a true test of Fianna Fáil's new staying power

Fine Gael: Approximately 1 in 4 Irish people support Fine Gael; this was evident in 2007, and it is evident now.  Their 2011 triumph was much less to do with the policies they were proposing, and much more because of the failure of the previous administration. The party has lost votes to independents and also Renua, while a small fraction have returned to Fianna Fáil. Party officials have only themselves to blame: they ran a very poor campaign, and came across as extremely arrogant, a huge turn off for Irish voters. In attempting to stay above the fray, Kenny only served to strengthen the hand of their rivals. This is a setback, of that there is no doubt, but if the party learns from its mistakes, then it can place itself in a very strong position for the future. Its record in office was quite good, and their economic achievements are to be admired. Their best option is to wait; no government will be able to form without them (a FF-SF might be possible, but would be extremely damaging to both), and another election could significantly increase their tally. However, new leadership is essential- Kenny is a poor campaigner, and a more relatable individual is needed (could Mr. Varadkar please stand up?).

Labour: As predicted, Labour collapsed. They won an enormous share of the Dublin vote last time out, mainly from moderate FF, and also Green supporters. The policies they have undertaken have been extremely unpopular with their base, and their vastly-exaggerated election promises have not helped. Critics accused them of betraying the working-class, and their tepid response to these charges only added further fuel to the fire. Their support has returned to FF, the Greens, some has gone to Sinn Féin while the rest has been swallowed up by the smaller left-wing parties. However, this election also clearly shows an increase in the left-wing share of the overall vote. This would confirm what anecdotal evidence suggests, which is that the Irish electorate has shifted to the left in recent years. They have promised not to return to government, and in all likelihood, they wouldn’t be able to if they tried. Labour will  be able to look back on their time in office with some level of pride however, and if a FF-FG coalition does happen, then those who abandoned Labour in this election may discover to be careful what you wish for. 

Sinn Féin: When is a victory a defeat? Despite doing quite well in the presidential and local elections, and riding high in the polls for months, SF have added only a measly 4% on to their previous tally, mostly from the more nationalist and left-wing voters. While they will suggest otherwise, party insiders will be disappointed with their performance. Much of this has to be blamed on their leader, Gerry Adams, who alienates more than he attracts. His promise to abolish the Special Criminal Court, which deals mainly with gang-crime and terrorism, did nothing to assure voters who believe SF is still controlled by the IRA. The party also has an enormous image problem outside its core base, and as transfers show, it has struggled to pick up more moderate voters. All other major parties have also pledged not to go into power with it. The party faces an uncertain future; its nationalist base sits uneasy with its hard-left bloc and it is only the leadership of Adams which unites them. In the future it will have to decide between the two. Presently however, the only option available to the party apart from opposition, is a government with Fianna Fáil. While this might tempt some of its more progressive members, SF thrives in opposition, sustaining itself largely on anti-establishment vote. Going into power would risk all of that.

Green Party: The Greens have returned somewhat, and will likely end up with at least two seats. The party will be delighted with this, for reasons of funding, and will look to build a more solid base in the future, and not repeat their mistakes in the previous government.

Independents: They have done very well, largely as a result of a predicted hung parliament, where independents were expected to break the deadlock. They’ve taken a significant share of the vote from both FF and FG over the past two elections. However, beware the coming storm. The Irish electorate will eventually realise that it is no use voting independent in order to protest or in the hope of a backroom deal for your constituency. The public must elect a government, and so the day of reckoning will come to pass sooner or later. A useful approach to deal with the rise of Independents would be for a cross-party statement, promising only to go into government with other political parties and to refuse to coalition with independent candidates.

Other Left-Wing: A strong showing for AAA-PBP, as well as the Social Democrats. Both will be pleased, and as suggested above, implies a strong leftward shift in the Irish electorate. However, these parties are small, have little organisation and Pythonesque in their differences- expect the return of the Labour government to the opposition benches to seriously test the viability and staying power of these left wing parties.

Renua: The revolution has collapsed before it could even begin. While Lucinda Creighton is an admirable and principled woman, voters never warmed to her new right wing party, which was beset with trouble from the offset. If she does not return to FG, expect an exit from political life.