The United States Presidential election has thus far, not
only not only defied conventional wisdom, but rather beaten it senseless, and
then some. Republican frontrunner, the real estate mogul and star of numerous
reality tv shows Donald J. Trump, has broken every political rule in the book.
He has insulted Latinos, Blacks, Muslims, Women (really the majority of
Americans), with statements that would make Marine Le Pen blush. He has incited
violence, promoted bigotry, and come across as uninformed and ignorant, with a temperament
that would be more suited to WWE than the White House. Yet staggeringly, his
numbers have only gone up. He now seems certain to head into the Republican
convention in Cleveland this June, having wrapped up the nomination, or at the
very least fallen just a few delegates short.
Realistically, the only chance Mr Trump has of not winning
the nomination is via a brokered convention. In such a case, the popular vote
would largely be thrown out thrown out the window, and the party establishment
would decide who to nominate, likely either Governor Kasich of Ohio, or Paul
Ryan, current Speaker of the House. If he is ‘robbed’ of the nominated in such
a way, Mr Trump has threatened riots, and to turn his back on the party and run
as an independent, taking his huge grassroots support with him. Such a
situation terrifies Republican commentators, who agree that it would almost
certainly hand Hilary Clinton the presidency. However, such fears are largely overblown,
and an independent Trump is unlikely to hinder a Republican campaign, for three
key reasons.
First, Mr Trump’s popularity with voters has been
overestimated. Although he is coming first, and has been doing so for a while,
this is largely the fault of an overly crowded Republican field, which at one
stage consisted of 18 different candidates. They spent so much time attacking
each other that they largely ignored Trump, expecting him to fizzle out. In
addition, while there have been record breaking turnouts at primaries, a
crucial fact remains; Mr Trump has never exceeded more than 50% of the vote.
With over half the states now called, and the field reduced to just 3 remaining
candidates, this is simply put, quite staggering. This means that, at these
recording-breaking primaries, the majority of Republicans are voting against Trump, and for a separate candidate.
With Trump having insulted so many of his rivals, from Bush, Cruz, Rubio and
Fiorina, in deeply vitriolic attacks, winning over their support will provide
Trump with an enormous mountain to climb.
Secondly, despite constantly flaunting his wealth, and
claiming that because of it, ‘’he cannot be bought’’, Trump has largely avoided
spending any of his own money on his campaign. Instead, he has relied on free coverage
from the media, granted everytime he says something particularly despicable. In
November for example, when it seemed that his momentum had stalled and he had
been overtaken by Ben Carson in the polls, he proposed banning all Muslims from
entering the United States. This led to a huge increase in coverage and,
consequently, he regained his frontrunner status. It is unclear how much of his
own money he would be willing to spend on what would certainly be a doomed independent
presidential bid, and he will find the media less attentive, as they focus on
the two main parties. Thus, an independent Trump candidacy may not even
materialise.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the reason that
grassroots republicans support Trump in such high numbers is because they are
angry. The U.S. is becoming a multi-racial majority country, and poor whites
feel like they have lost out. Trump provides them a voice, as belligerent as it
may be, and is also incredibly politically incorrect, for which they love him
even more. But despite a media consensus, to portray them all as idiots is to
do them a disservice. They know that by voting for an independent Trump in the
General, they will be handing the presidency to Hilary on a silver platter. And
that’s the key. For as much as they hate the Republican establishment, they
hate Hilary and Democrats even more, and will do anything in their power to
stop her.
If Trump wins enough pledged delegates in time for the
convention, then all of this is largely moot. However, if he does not, Republicans
should not be afraid to turn their backs on him, and hand the nomination to
someone else. This will give them a much greater chance of retaining both the
House and the Senate, and more importantly, of taking back the White House
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